Gambling on the Future

The multibillion-dollar “predictive markets” business was born at a bar over a beer. Built on an academic experiment at the University of Iowa in 1988, it was the brainchild of three economists who wanted to test their idea that betting markets had the potential to provide practical information concerning future events (NBCNews.com).

Today, prediction markets are platforms for people to place bets on specific outcomes to win money. While betting on the outcome of such events as sports, elections, and weather is nothing new, these platforms have experienced a surge in popularity in recent years, with global trading volumes more than quadrupling from $15.8 billion in 2024 to roughly $63.5 billion in 2025 (Decrypt.co).

Modern online prediction markets enable users to bet on almost any future event, from predicting who will win the Super Bowl to forecasting the contents of a public company’s earnings report. So varied and accessible are the avenues of these prediction markets that a U.S. Army soldier used confidential government information to place a bet on the timing and outcome of a United States military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier’s winnings of more than $400,000 quickly caught the attention of law enforcement (CNN).

But gambling on the future is a far cry from accurately predicting it; Credit Ninja recently reported: “Seventy percent of users have lost money. And of those remaining 30%… less than 1 in 2,000 profitable users captured over 70% of all profits. We’re talking $3.7 billion concentrated in the hands of roughly 700 accounts…. These prediction markets feel like less of a degenerate gambler’s paradise and more of an inside trader’s paradise.”

However, there is a platform on which we can stand to be sure of future events that have already begun to unfold. This platform is not a gamble—actually, it often costs no money at all. It does, however, require eyes to see and ears to hear.

The Bible has proven itself as the only source of prophecy that can be fully trusted. It has a remarkable history of getting it right all the time—not just sometimes. For example, many of its prophecies predicted the first coming of Jesus Christ:

• That He would be born of a virgin (Matthew 1:23; Isaiah 7:14).
• That He would be born in Bethlehem (Matthew 2:6; John 7:42; Micah 5:2).
• That He would sojourn in Egypt (Matthew 2:15; Hosea 11:1).
• That He would live in Galilee (Matthew 4:15; Isaiah 9:1, 2).
• That His coming would be announced by an Elijah-like herald (Matthew 3:3; 11:10–14; Mark 1:2–3; Luke 3:4–6; 7:27; John 1:23; Isaiah 40:3–5; Malachi 3:1; 4:5).
• That His ministry would be one of healing (Matthew 8:17; Isaiah 53:4).
• That He would be betrayed by a friend for 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 27:9–10; John 13:18; Zechariah 11:12–13; Psalm 41:9).
• And that His side would be pierced (John 19:37; Zechariah 12:10; Psalm 22:16) (Halley’s Bible Handbook, pp. 421–422).

With that track record, we can approach the Bible’s predictions of the future with confidence—especially since we are living in the time when God intends the secrets of His word to be revealed. “The Old Testament book of Daniel reveals prophecies of the end time—recorded but sealed. The New Testament book of Revelation depicts Jesus Christ opening the seals to reveal the future to His true servants (Revelation 1:1; 5:5). In other words, it is now possible to understand the future with clarity” (Revelation: The Mystery Unveiled!).

The Apostle Peter tells us that the Bible gives its readers “the prophetic word confirmed” (2 Peter 1:19)—there is no need to look anywhere else for absolute certainty about what the future holds.

To learn of coming events that will affect the earth and all its inhabitants, access this well-documented resource, Revelation: The Mystery Unveiled! This free study guide will give you the keys to understanding Bible prophecies that no “prediction market” can ever match.